Time Series Analysis of Accidents on Federal Highways in Pernambuco Time Series Analysis of Accidents on Federal Highways in Pernambuco

Abstract

The research on traffic accidents in Brazil, with an emphasis on federal highways in Pernambuco, aims to analyze and investigate accidents through data analysis. The central purpose is to predict future events on different types of lanes—single, double, and multiple—based on historical data from 2017 to February 2024. The study aims to support the development of strategies and inform metric-based decision-making, using an experimental protocol that utilizes data analysis techniques and models such as Isolated Forest, Prophet, and SARIMAX. Each step involves smoothing the data with moving average and median techniques to generate new metrics, identifying the best configuration for each lane type.